By: Abdul Gafur Sangadji,
Political Analyst in the Politics Faculty at the University of Indonesia.
Published in Editorial BBC, May o1,2007.
The presidential election in East Timor, our closest neighbour, is going to a second round, scheduled for 8 May, after none of the eight candidates contesting in the first round won a majority (51 per cent).
It will be interesting to watch the second round, not just because it will be a contest between the two candidates who won the most votes in the first round, but because the results will more or less have an impact on Indonesia-East Timor relations in the future.
Fretilin candidate Guterres, who is currently the parliamentary speaker, is in a good position to beat Ramos-Horta. Before the election took place, political analysts predicted that Ramos-Horta, an independent candidate, would win the election or at least obtain the largest portion of the votes in the first round. However, the results indicate that Guterres is more popular amongst the East Timorese than Ramos-Horta. Initially, Ramos-Horta was considered superior because of support from Xanana Gusmao and the fact that he is currently the prime minister. However, the results of the first round indicate otherwise. Ramos-Horta, who received a lot of support from President Xanana Gusmao needs to admit, at least for now, that Guterres is more popular. But why is this so?
Three factors
The first factor is support from Fretilin's political machine. Fretilin, which emerged in the 1970's and held an important role in East Timor's struggle for independence, is actually still capable of influencing its support base. As the main power in East Timor's politics, Fretilin has demonstrated that it is capable of garnering support from people disappointed by Ramos-Horta's leadership. Gusmao's siding with Ramos-Horta's faction has actually intensified the 'political battle' with Fretilin. Fretilin, which has strong political roots and a hierarchy which reaches down to the village level, worked relatively well in the first round of the election to deliver the greatest proportion of the votes to Guterres. At the same time, it proved predictions that Ramos-Horta would win to be incorrect.
The second factor is that Guterres has deeper roots than Ramos-Horta. Guterres is superior to Ramos-Horta in respect to his heredity and nationalism. The public sees Guterres as representing the roots of politics and culture in East Timor. Ramos-Horta is disliked in relation to international affairs because of his overly favourable attitude towards foreign powers such as Australia. Furthermore, he is disliked because he agreed to the measures taken by international powers in relation to Major Alfredo Reinado, who is regarded as a rebel and responsible for provoking unrest in 2006.
The third factor is political pressure from Fretilin. To date, Ramos-Horta's supporters have been unable to prove allegations of intimidation by Fretilin in the first round. But one thing that is certain is that the largest party in politics could have intimidated people in order attain its political ambitions. So, the fact that Guterres obtained the largest proportion of votes in the first round may have been due to intimidation by Fretilin activists dating back to before the election was even held. Fretilin activists also pressured (intimidated) people in the lead up to the referendum in East Timor.
Indonesian-East Timor Relations Regardless of who wins a majority, Indonesia has an interest in East Timor's presidential election. East Timor is a new country which needs support from friendly nations to solve its many problems. The challenge for the newly elected president, and the prime minister who will be elected around June, is to fix the countries international and domestic problems. Its domestic problems include poverty, unemployment, illiteracy and the threat of civil war, whereas its international problems include the direction of its foreign policy, particularly in relation to forming friendly relations with neighbouring countries such as Indonesia.
In the five years since it gained independence (since 20 May 2002) and the eight years since it split with Indonesia via the 1999 referendum under BJ Habibie's administration, bilateral relations between the countries have been somewhat uneasy due to a problem from the past which has never been resolved, this being accusations of human rights abuses before and after the referendum. Indonesia has been accused of igniting problems by aiding pro-integration groups when conflict broke out with the pro-independent groups.
I believe that the establishment of the Truth and Friendship Commission based on an agreement between President Yudhoyono and President Xanana Gusmao on 11 August 2005 is a good way of resolving the human rights abuses which occurred in East Timor. Made up of ten members, the commission aims to collate facts relating to the turmoil in East Timor following the referendum. The establishment of the commission is important for Indonesia in countering common allegations from the international community, or in this matter Australia and the US. It is hoped that the commission's findings will provide clarity in relation to the human rights abuses. The findings are important not just in relation to upholding human rights, but in reaching the truth and building a friendship between the two countries.
Another crucial problem which must be resolved is the border between the two countries and other related issues. The border is susceptible because people from East Timor often flee to Indonesia due to domestic problems, such as during the 2006 unrest. During the first round of the recent presidential elections, Indonesia actually closed the border to prevent agitators who had disrupted the election process from crossing into Indonesia.
In addition, it is very important to watch the border because it is susceptible to transnational crimes such as human trafficking, illegal logging and smuggling. These non-conventional problems clearly have the potential to threaten national security. Because of this, the government must improve security along the border with East Timor as DPR Commission I recommended to the Department of Foreign Affairs (hearing, 30 Jul 2006). The aim is simply to protect national interests in both countries from non-military threats. Because of this, East Timor, as our closest neighbour, shares many of Indonesia's interests.
If this election brings to power a new president who understands the interests of both countries, Indonesia-East Timor relations will be much better in the future. We hope that East Timor can become a successful country under the new president, and that there is further political consolidation, so that the former 27th province of Indonesia does not become a failed state, but instead becomes a good friend to Indonesia.
Source: Media Indonesia, Jakarta, in Indonesian 1 May 07
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